By Ashley Avalos ’26
California’s 45th congressional district race is between Republican Representative Michelle Steel and Democrat Derek Tran. The 45th district includes parts of Orange County, Fountain Valley, and Los Angeles. It consists of Westminster, Cypress, Garden Grove and Los Alamitos, Rossmoor, Hawaiian Gardens, La Palma, Buena Park, Cerritos, Artesia, Fullerton, Fountain Valley, Brea, and Placentia along with Yorba Linda. About 40% of the constituents in this district identify as Asian American. Steel is the district representative and has served since January 3, 2023. She seeks reelection for a third term in this 2024 congressional race. Tran is a first-time candidate. This race is contentious given public opinion is almost evenly split between the two. California’s 45th district was previously won by Biden in 2020, yet, in 2022, Republican Governor Brian Dahle won the district’s majority vote against Gavin Newsom. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee has shared that the outcome of this race could determine control of the House of Representatives in 2025. Should Steel lose this election and Tran win, the balance of power may shift from Republicans to Democrats in the House.
The demographic composition of the district will play a significant role in determining the race’s outcome. The 45th district has a population of 737,224. According to the American Community Survey of 2023, the congressional district has a slightly larger female population than male. The district’s two more prominent age groups, each constituting about 14% of the district population, are adults between 10-19 and an older population of 50-59 years old. About 61% of the district is between 18 and 65, producing a median age of 41.2, which is about 10% higher than the state median age of 38.2.
Asian Americans constitute approximately 40% of the district. Specific ethnicities largely include Vietnamese and Korean and a smaller Chinese and Filipino population. Vietnamese is spoken in 27.6% of the non-English speaking households with Korean spoken in 11%. Of the 737,000 population, 18,117 are veterans, where most served in Vietnam.
Michelle Steel Biography
Steel was born in South Korea and raised in Japan where she soon immigrated to the United States. Her father was a diplomat who pushed Michelle to pursue a career in the U.S. after obtaining fluency in English. Steel served on the Orange County Board of Supervisors and the California Board of Equalization. She assumed these roles after witnessing how the gap in language access resources on tax laws and state regulation directly affected her family’s entrepreneurial efforts. She largely bases her campaign on pushing back on tax raises. She has labeled herself as a leader for the voice of working-class families.
Throughout Steel’s career, she has engaged with issues ranging from the economy and jobs, education, energy and environment, health, veterans, and foreign affairs. Steel has strongly proclaimed her stance against the Chinese Communist Party and the threat the group poses to Democratic policy and practices. Another of her priorities is to push for the elimination of regulations related to independent contractors and repealing the cap on state and local tax deductions.
Derek Tran Biography
Derek is a U.S. Army veteran and a consumer rights attorney. As a son of refugees who fled the communist regime in Vietnam, Tran was raised in Southern California. His family opened their own corner market to support Tran’s endeavors. He enlisted in the Army at the age of 18. One of Tran’s campaigning points is his intent to look past political affiliations when working to fulfill his duty to Californians, a mindset he accredits to his service experience. Tran opened a pharmacy with his wife and, rather than join a large corporation, created a small business in Anaheim, Orange County to support immigrants, workers, and survivors of sexual harassment after completing law school.
Tran has based his efforts on addressing the following issues; accountability, reducing the tax burden on the working class, and mitigating health care costs, including supporting women’s choice and access to medical attention.
Key Issues
On abortion, Steel is in agreement with the 2022 U.S. Supreme Court ruling which overturned Roe vs. Wade. This effectively ended federal abortion rights and instead allotted abortion regulations to states. Steel’s opposition to abortion has exceptions for extreme case scenarios like instances of rape, incest or to save the life of the mother. In addition, she does not believe in a federally administrated ban on abortion. But, before the primary election, on two different occasions, the conservative candidate cosponsored the “Life at Conception Act,” a bill that essentially calls for a nationwide abortion ban. Her transition toward a centrist stance on the topic indicates vulnerability and was an opportunity for Tran to refer to her leadership as too extreme for the interests of the 45th congressional district. Democrat Tran has been vocal about his pro-choice stance. Rather than leaving abortion as a state matter, he would vote to integrate abortion as a federal right. He aims to protect funding for Planned Parenthood and access to women’s health services like birth control and cancer screenings. His background in the pharmaceutical realm has helped his campaign to reduce healthcare costs and improve access to sexual health services.
Tax regulations and cost of living are other topics both candidates campaign heavily on. Steel has focused her energy on lowering taxes for “hardworking families.” According to her, the trend of rising taxes is directly associated with the Democratic-led state legislature. Steel has supported legislation to reduce taxes through her sponsorship of the Permanent Tax Cuts for American Families Act of 2023. This proposed bill would permanently increase the standard tax deduction for non-itemizing taxpayers and also push for an inflation adjustment to the increased deduction amounts.
Tran aims to hold corporations accountable for price gouging. He has accused his opponent Michelle Steel and other long-time “Washington Insiders” of giving tax breaks to their corporate donors. Tran notes that he will stand against this corrupt and elitist culture in Congress by minimizing the influence of lobbyists and refusing to accept donations from corporate PACs. He has long committed to helping workers as a workers’ rights attorney and has been engaged in the discourse for improving working conditions and holding corporations accountable. Similar to his opponent, he plans on enforcing a tax cut for middle-class families and small businesses as well as making an effort to introduce more good-paying jobs to push for liveable wages.
Campaigning and Funds
The Federal Election Commission has reported that Steel’s Leadership PAC raised $9.4 million and spent $7.3 million on efforts. Tran has received significantly lower financial support. He raised $5 million and has spent about $4.4 million.
From her Campaign Committee Fundraising, Steel has received $2.6 million cash on hand and incurred $2.1 million in debt. The top PAC contributors are the following; American Israel Public Affairs Committee, contributing a total of $51,422, the Republican Jewish Coalition contributed a total of $30,550, BP Industries gave $26,700, Grow the Majority PAC gave $17,707 and Fuel Freedom Foundation gave $16,500. A breakdown of Steel’s source of funds includes large individual contributions making up 26.08 %, PAC contributions are 20.26%, candidate self-financing equal 18.63% and smaller individual contributions are 16.43%. Finances in the “Spending by Others” bucket in support of Steel is $367,194.39. Meanwhile, $21,213.55 has been raised in the Republican candidate’s opposition. Steel’s more supportive industries include those classified as retired, the Republicans and Conservatives, securities and investment, and leadership PACS. With a generally older district median age, the conservative pocket went to Michelle.
Tran has received $630,236.98 cash on hand. Tran’s source of funds consists of large individual contributions at 26.09%, PAC contributions at 20.26%, candidate self-financing at 18.63%, small individual contributions at 16.44%, and other funding at 18.58%. His top contributors include J Street, a pro-Israel organization that has given a sum of $30,366, Digidems PAC $26,400, Stanford University $19,048, Alphabet Inc $18,716, and more. Independent expenditures raised in support of Tran includes $107,078 and in opposition is $22,337. The industries that primarily support the candidate include lawyers/law firms, securities and investment, the Democratic party, and the retired.
Media coverage
The struggle faced by Michelle Steel is securing the Vietnamese vote. Little Saigon is the community that can sway the results of the race. Steel argues that her experience as a first-generation immigrant whose parents fled the authoritarian North Korean regime resonates more with Vietnamese Americans. Tran, a second-generation Vietnamese American, is committing to his immigrant roots.
In response, media coverage by Michelle Steel has been more aggressive toward Tran’s appeal to the Vietnamese constituents. She has often put Tran’s fluency in the Vietnamese language under scrutiny to prove her point that despite his Vietnamese name, he lacks the lived experience of the Vietnamese constituents. Clips of the Democratic candidate misinterpreting interview questions in Vietnamese and requiring translator assistance have circulated. While Tran has received sympathy and encouragement from voters who acknowledge his effort to embrace his roots, Steel has pushed the narrative that her opponent is dishonest in having claimed fluency.
Red-baiting is a calculated media attack strategy both candidates utilized. Red-baiting is the deliberate labeling of someone as a communist or affiliate of the Communist Party. Steel has linked Tran to Mao Zedong in a propagandist campaign effort that used visual symbols, the hammer, and sickle, alongside the Democratic candidate. On the other hand, Tran has slipped in accusations toward the Incumbent’s husband, Shaun Steel, of cooperating with Chinese espionage for economic gain. Therein urging constituents to be wary of Steel’s vocal opposition to the CCP.
In September, Steel published news on Tran’s lack of transparency regarding representing alleged sexual predators and racists when he was a practicing lawyer. Politico included in their article three separate cases where Tran defended parties who engaged in racist endeavors like one individual who hung a noose in his office during the Black Lives Matter Movement, another who made sexually inappropriate comments, and the other who sexually assaulted his coworkers. Steel took the opportunity to pitch for female voters, insinuating that Tran’s liberal approach to women’s issues is just a campaign issue for him. Tran responded by reiterating Steel’s support for the abortion ban bill and her extremist approach. The rhetoric Tran uses to associate Steel and extremism is calling her “MAGA Steel” in reference to her close affiliation with Mike Johnson, Republican Speaker of the House.
Reception from the public through polling
After the primary elections established the running parties, the Tulchin Research poll taken in late May and early June shared that Steel would lead the poll by one percent, 42 to 41 with about 17% of the community remaining undecided. Public support has most recently favored the first-time Democratic candidate. Tran has taken the lead in the October 2024 poll by three points. Tran leads with a calculated 48% and Steel currently has 45% of voter support. Tran has a 23-point advantage with AAPI voters, particularly, he is favored among the Vietnamese community where he holds a 26-point advantage. Among Latino voters, Tran holds a five-point lead. Support from this diverse demographic for the Democratic candidate has remained a consistent trend in the polls since summer.
Steel holds a stronger voter advantage across the white and older voter grouping. Several race tracking resources observing the 45th race have reached a consensus that the race rating is a “Toss-up.” Before October 22, Nonpartisan analysis with Nathan L. Gonzalez had categorized the race tilt, as Republican. However, the race has gotten more uncertain with Derek Tran taking the lead.
Prediction
Based on current voter trends, the probability of Derek Tran winning the race is greater than Michelle Steel’s. Tran has demonstrated he is a strong leader capable of more accurately and readily representing the needs of the community through his experience representing workers’ rights and advocating for tax relief as a small business owner himself. Although Steel holds a financial advantage and the conservative vote, Tran seems to be the leader who best supports the needs of the people. In a race where two Asian Americans compete for the seat in Congress, the Vietnamese American population vote will be significant. This election invites a younger, less conservative demographic to vote and at the same time, they have the possibility to vote in the district’s first Vietnamese American representative. Steel’s unwillingness to elaborate on her confusing abortion stance and unsettling comments of being more “Vietnamese passing” than her opponent is not well received. However, her incumbency does allot her name recognition and greater funding, all of which are crucial advantages for campaign efforts. But Tran’s status as a first-time candidate is not to be underscored. Derek Tran has established himself as a member of the community. He has effectively outsourced Michelle Steel despite the funding differences by sticking to his campaign strategy. Tran set himself up as a leader who can represent the differing views of the district by being part of the cultural Vietnamese community, a committed public servant, a father, a veteran, and a member of the small business owners. In other words, Derek Tran developed his campaign into the “I am one of you” tactics. California’s 45th congressional district election will be a tight race but the votes for November 5, 2024, will be in favor of Democrat Derek Tran.
References
- Ballotpedia. “California,” n.d. https://ballotpedia.org/California.
- Ballotpedia. “California’s 45th Congressional District,” 2021. https://ballotpedia.org/California%27s_45th_Congressional_District.
- Ballotpedia. “Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee,” n.d. https://ballotpedia.org/Democratic_Congressional_Campaign_Committee.
- Best, Ryan. “California 45th District : U.S. House : 2024 Polls.” FiveThirtyEight, June 28, 2018. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/house/2024/california/45/.
- Center for New Media & Promotion (CNMP), US Census Bureau. “My Congressional District.” http://www.census.gov, 2023. https://www.census.gov/mycd/?st=06&cd=45.
- Congress.gov. “H.R.3270 – 118th Congress (2023-2024): Permanent Tax Cuts for American Families Act of 2023,” 2023. https://www.congress.gov/bill/118th-congress/house-bill/3270.
- datausa.io. “Congressional District 45, ca | Data USA,” 2022. https://datausa.io/profile/geo/congressional-district-45-ca.
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- FEC.gov. “STEEL, MICHELLE – Candidate Overview – FEC.gov,” 2021. https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H0CA48198/?tab=other-spending
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https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4CA45170/?tab=other-spending. - GovTrack.us. “Michelle Steel, Representative for California’s 45th Congressional District,” n.d. https://www.govtrack.us/congress/members/michelle_steel/456803.
- greenleaf@dccc.org. “Michelle Steel and California Republicans Continue to Embrace MAGA Leadership with Johnson Fundraiser – DCCC.” DCCC, April 3, 2024.
https://dccc.org/michelle-steel-and-california-republicans-continue-to-embrace-maga-lea dership-with-johnson-fundraiser/. - “The Case against Michelle Steel – DCCC.” DCCC, March 28, 2024. https://dccc.org/thecaseagainstmichellesteel/.
- Haskell, Josh. “Accusations of Red-Baiting in OC Congressional Race between Michelle Steel and Derek Tran.” ABC7 Los Angeles, October 30, 2024.
https://abc7.com/post/accusations-red-baiting-oc-congressional-race-between-michelle-st eel-derek-tran/15485918/. - Hernandez, Angie Orellana. “California Congressional District 45 Election: Steel vs. Tran Voter Guide.” Los Angeles Times, October 3, 2024.
https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2024-10-03/2024-california-election-congressio nal-district-45-steel-tran-voter-guide. - Insideelections.com. “House Ratings,” 2024. https://www.insideelections.com/ratings/house.
- Kang, Hanna. “Derek Tran Says He’s Fluent in Vietnamese. Rep. Michelle Steel’s Campaign Says He’s Not.” Orange County Register, September 6, 2024.
https://www.ocregister.com/2024/09/06/derek-tran-says-hes-fluent-in-vietnamese-rep-mic helle-steels-campaign-says-hes-not/. - Kapur, Sahil, and Rebecca Kaplan. “GOP Rep. Michelle Steel Rescinds Cosponsorship of Life at Conception Act after Winning Primary.” NBC News, March 7, 2024.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/gop-rep-michelle-steel-rescinds-cosponsorsh ip-life-conception-act-rcna142285. - OpenSecrets. “California District 45 2024 Race,” 2024.
https://www.opensecrets.org/races/candidates?cycle=2024&id=CA45&spec=N. - OpenSecrets. “Rep. Michelle Steel – Campaign Finance Summary,” 2024. https://www.opensecrets.org/members-of-congress/michelle-steel/summary?cid=N00044 501.
- Representative Michelle Steel. “About,” January 3, 2021. https://steel.house.gov/about. steel.house.gov. “Issues | Representative Michelle Steel,” n.d. https://steel.house.gov/issues.
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https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/red-baiting.
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